Midland, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS65 KPSR 071054
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
354 AM MST Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be well above normal this week thanks to high
pressure building over the region. The center of the high pressure
will move over head late this week causing temperatures to climb
into the upper 90s to low 100s across the lower deserts. With high
pressure overhead dry conditions will continue along with mostly
clear skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level water vapor imagery early this morning shows a ridge
building over western CONUS and a longwave trough stretching from
the upper Midwest down into northern Mexico. The aforementioned
ridge will continue to build over western CONUS throughout the week.
This ridge will cause temperatures to increase as well with Moderate
HeatRisk developing across portions of the lower deserts by the end
of the week. The hot temperatures and increasing HeatRisk will be
the main forecast concern this week.

With the ridge really starting to move into our region today,
afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be around 6-8 degrees
warmer than they were yesterday. With highs ranging from the mid 80s
to low 90s across the lower deserts and in the upper 70s to low 80s
in the higher terrain areas. As the ridge strengthens, lower desert
afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to rise to the low-to-mid
90s on Tuesday and mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday. The center of the
ridge will be over the Desert Southwest and at its peak (H5 heights
around 588dm) by the later half of the week. Lower desert high
temperatures will be around 15-18 degrees above normal and in the
upper 90s to low 100s. Currently Friday is forecasted to be the
hottest day of the week with a forecasted high of 102 degrees in
Phoenix, AZ, Blythe, CA, and Imperial, CA. It is likely that many
lower desert locations will reach the century mark for the first
time this year by the end of the week. The current NBM forecast
has a greater than 90% chance that a lot of lower desert
communities will reach the century mark by the end of the week.
With temperatures around 15-18 degrees above normal they will also
be near record high temperature marks (see CLIMATE section
below). So not only is there a good chance of locations seeing
their first 100 degree high temperature, there is also a good
chance of some new record high temperatures to be set. There will
also be areas of Moderate HeatRisk developing across the lower
deserts on Thursday, which will have impacts on those who are
sensitive to the heat, and/or those who have prolonged exposure to
the heat without adequate hydration. So be sure to practice smart
heat safety this week and try to limit your time outdoors,
especially during the heat of the day, and make sure to drink
plenty of water. There will be adequate cooling at night with
overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 60s outside of urban
core areas and in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in the urban
core areas.

Global ensemble guidance continues to be in pretty good agreement
that by late next weekend and into next week a large scale trough
will move into our region. The ensemble members are in disagreement
with the exact strength and depth of the trough, but it is expected
to at least weaken the ridge leading to at least a brief cooling
trend for our region. Currently afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to fall back into the upper 80s to low 90s across the
lower deserts. It is unlikely that this trough would bring enough
moisture to our region to support any rain chances. However, it`s
more likely that this trough would lead to breezy to locally
windy conditions for our region, which could lead to some elevated
fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1055Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through at least Tuesday
morning under clear skies. Winds are expected to follow typical
diurnal tendencies with speeds generally AOB 8 kts. Extended
periods of variable to nearly calm winds are anticipated at the SE
California terminals through early afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build over the region this week leading to
increasing temperatures, dry conditions, overall light winds, and
mostly clear skies. Temperatures are forecasted to be around 5
degrees above normal today, but rise to around 15-18 degrees above
normal (and near the century mark across much of the lower
deserts) by the end of the week. MinRHs will be less than 10%
through the week with poor overnight recovery, with maxRH around
15-30%. Winds will overall be light and tend to follow their
typical diurnal tendencies.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr  9   102 in 1989   102 in 1989   104 in 1989
Apr 10   100 in 2018   100 in 1960    98 in 2018
Apr 11    99 in 2023   101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12    99 in 1936   102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich
CLIMATE...Kuhlman